Over the past 4 months we’ve diligently tracked some of the nations most prominent pundits. Not everyone welcomed having the card marked but we continue to track them anyway. Our objective was to find out how accurate these pundits were and whether their accuracy (or lack of it) actually matter to readers.

The results to date show Nikki Finke in the lead as while she has only a 55% accuracy record she’s successfully predicted a number of rank outsiders giving her a healthy return. Celebrity blogger, Perez Hilton, isn’t far behind in third position overall but DListed trails badly with a 33% accuracy ratio.

In the world of politics David Brooks is top dog with an impressive 62.5% accuracy ratio but additionally a number of well picked outsiders. Pat Buchanan has achieved an impressive 80% success ratio however many of his punts were odds on favorites so he still only ranks in 6th position. Chris Mathews however is in the red with a 41.67% hit rate. Next time Chris offers up some sage advice keep in mind that you would do better trusting a coin toss!

In the tech world we have expertly written Venture Beat edging out former Wall Street analyst Henry Blodget’s Silicon Alley Insider. Venture Beat managed to hit an impressive 66.67% accuracy rate. The runt of the tech litter however was Mike Arrington’s TechCrunch with came bottom of the overall table with a woeful 20% accuracy rate, making them about as accurate as Barack Obama’s 10-pin bowling arm!

However the second test was to find out how much readers care about accuracy. Well using Compete to analyze traffic to entertainment blogs shows Perez Hilton remains the standout leader, followed by DListed and then Nikki Finke. All three blogs appear to have had fairly consistent traffic levels over the past 12 months. One can deduce that while readers of entertainment blogs seek celebrity gossip, inaccurate celebrity gossip seems just as good as the real thing.

Similar conclusions can probably be drawn in the tech world were TechCrunch leads the pack with more than double its nearest rivals user numbers. However VentureBeat and Alley Insider appear to still be growing strongly in the past 6 months while TechCrunch appears to have plateaued. Perhaps in the long run in tech credibility rather than confident speculation will win out in the end?

For politics it is harder to track each pundits ups and downs however a clear loser over the past 4 months was Chris Matthews who was pulled from MSNBC’s election coverage. However, there the reason was due to MSNBC’s concern about its perceived liberal bias as opposed to Matthew’s patchy record as a pundit.

This marks the end of Pundit Watch’s four month experiment. After this point we will no longer be recording new predictions however we will retain the leaderboard to see how the remaining predictions play out. Additionally, we have just launched partner accounts (with Reuters as our launch partner) so we will be inviting the nine pundits to join us there.

Speculation is hotting up about the forthcoming Facebook F8 conference. TechCrunch has a long list of speculations but they are voting for a payments platform.

Will Facebook Announce A Facebook Payments Platform At F8?

techcrunch_pw predicted Yes on 18th Jul 08

what is this?

The News Prediction Game

TechCrunch is re-reporting statements by Larry Page and Sergei Brin suggesting a Google Phone might really happen. Mediaweek reported them as saying:

“The trio of Google execs also used the opportunity to talk about the inroads the company is making with its own branded mobile phone as a replacement for the iPhone.”

Additionally, TechCrunch linking it to another story about Google working with Ammunition Design Group and speculating that a Google Phone may really be on its way.

Will the google phone hit the stores this year?

techcrunch_pw predicted Yes on 13th Jul 08

what is this?

The News Prediction Game

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Since mid-June TechCrunch has been keeping a list of Yahoo execs that have left the company since January 2007. They have accumulated 114 names but worse is still to come.

TechCrunch is now reporting that Yahoo is only 3 weeks away from another mass exodus. A large number of executives are waiting until the first week of August when a large chunk of options vest. These grants are worth up to $200,000 so worth hanging around for a couple weeks.

Will The TechCrunch List Of Departed Yahoo Execs Hit 200 By End Of August?

techcrunch_pw predicted Yes   on 10th Jul 08

what is this?

The News Prediction Game

After the collapse of the Microsoft bid and Yahoo’s stock it seems like every blogger and his dog is after Jerry Yang’s head. Even the New York times has waded in telling Yang “if I were a betting man, I would be taking odds that your days as Yahoo’s C.E.O. are numbered”.

Mike Arrington (and quite possibly his dog) are reporting “From what we hear from multiple sources close to Yahoo, this article may be the final straw - whether the board backs Yang or not, this is just too much negative press for the company to overcome. A fresh start is now a necessity for moving forward. Yang will step down, our sources say. It may be next week or it may be next month, but it’s going to happen.”

Will Jerry Yang Remain CEO Of Yahoo By End Of 2008?

techcrunch_pw predicted No on 16th Jun 08

what is this?

The News Prediction Game

VentureBeat, TechCrunch and Silicon Alley Insider are all re-publishing photos what is allegedly the new 3G iPhone in red and grey (!). Alley Insider is slightly skeptical but doesn’t state they think they are fake. VentureBeat is very skeptical. Photo below:

Will The ‘Grey’ 3G iPhone Photos Be Shown To Be Genuine?

venturebeat_pw predicted No on 8th Jun 08

what is this?

The News Prediction Game

Will The ‘Grey’ 3G iPhone Photos Be Shown To Be Genuine?

techcrunch_pw predicted Yes on 8th Jun 08

what is this?

The News Prediction Game

Will The ‘Grey’ 3G iPhone Photos Be Shown To Be Genuine?

siliconalleyinsider_pw predicted Yes on 8th Jun 08

what is this?

The News Prediction Game

It is rumored to be ready for sale on the day it is widely expected to the launched (June 9th) however CrunchBase points out that doing that maintaining secrecy would be almost impossible. They are predicting it hits the street around June 16th. Additionally, they think it is likely the phone will be thinner than the old model.

When Will The 3G iPhone Be First Available For Sale?

techcrunch_pw predicted W/C June 16th on 3rd Jun 08

what is this?

The News Prediction Game

Will the 3G iPhone be thicker or thinner of the previous iPhone?

techcrunch_pw predicted Thinner on 3rd Jun 08

what is this?

The News Prediction Game

On May 21st, Microsoft announced its new strategy to get people to use its search engine, Live Search Cashback. They can’t make it better so they are going to pay you to use it. Microsoft will pay consumers who find and buy a product via Live Search a certain percentage of the purchase price back. The blogosphere is split on whether this will have any difference to their share of the search market.

Michael Arrington at TechCrunch writes “This new approach is both desperate and brilliant.” and “Will It Work? Yes, it will work and it will almost certainly increase Microsoft’s market share in search, particularly in commerce search.”

However he seems alone in his enthusiasm. Henry Blodget at SAI says it is a great idea that won’t work. MG Siegler at VentureBeat is more scathing saying “The question is if this will have any meaningful effect on Microsoft’s current 3rd-place search market share in the search business. The answer? Probably not. Microsoft should worry about improving its algorithms or coming up with a completely new way of doing search — not paying users to use an inferior product.”

So by August will Microsoft manage to increase its market share from the 9.1% recorded in April?

Will Microsoft Increase Its Market Share In Search 3 Months After Launching Live Search Cashback?

techcrunch_pw predicted Yes on 22nd May 08

what is this?

The News Prediction Game

Will Microsoft Increase Its Market Share In Search 3 Months After Launching Live Search Cashback?

venturebeat_pw predicted No on 22nd May 08

what is this?

The News Prediction Game

Will Microsoft Increase Its Market Share In Search 3 Months After Launching Live Search Cashback?

siliconalleyinsider_pw predicted No on 22nd May 08

what is this?

The News Prediction Game

VentureBeat, TechCrunch and Silicon Alley Insider are now all reporting the 3G iPhone to launch on June 9th. Interestingly they all uses Gizmodo as the source for the scoop. So I guess if Gizmodo got it wrong then it is going to be a bad week for tech pundits.

venturebeat_pw, techcrunch_pw and siliconalleyinsider_pw now all have H$10 on the 3G iPhone to launch between the 1st and 14th of June.

TechCrunch is reporting:

More details are emerging on round 2 of Yahoo/Microsoft: Instead of a simple straight up acquisition, Microsoft may be able to pull off a deal where they get to pick off just what they want - search - and leave the rest of Yahoo and it’s troubles behind.

This is a deal that would obviously cost Microsoft much less than a $40+ billion full buyout. And Ballmer could quiet the Microsoft employees and stockholders who were making it known that they hated the original Yahoo deal. At the end of the deal, Microsoft would own Yahoo’s lucrative search and search marketing business, and be a stockholder in the resulting entity. That final version of Yahoo would certainly use Microsoft for at least some of its advertising (Yahoo’s display advertising business may stay with Yahoo).

I suspect a deal will be done quickly - Yahoo’s Yang and supporting board of directors are already being beaten senseless by their own stockholders and they can ill afford another round of incompetence.

techcrunch_pw now has H$10 on Microsoft to announce a search deal with Yahoo by the end of May