Over the past 4 months we’ve diligently tracked some of the nations most prominent pundits. Not everyone welcomed having the card marked but we continue to track them anyway. Our objective was to find out how accurate these pundits were and whether their accuracy (or lack of it) actually matter to readers.

The results to date show Nikki Finke in the lead as while she has only a 55% accuracy record she’s successfully predicted a number of rank outsiders giving her a healthy return. Celebrity blogger, Perez Hilton, isn’t far behind in third position overall but DListed trails badly with a 33% accuracy ratio.

In the world of politics David Brooks is top dog with an impressive 62.5% accuracy ratio but additionally a number of well picked outsiders. Pat Buchanan has achieved an impressive 80% success ratio however many of his punts were odds on favorites so he still only ranks in 6th position. Chris Mathews however is in the red with a 41.67% hit rate. Next time Chris offers up some sage advice keep in mind that you would do better trusting a coin toss!

In the tech world we have expertly written Venture Beat edging out former Wall Street analyst Henry Blodget’s Silicon Alley Insider. Venture Beat managed to hit an impressive 66.67% accuracy rate. The runt of the tech litter however was Mike Arrington’s TechCrunch with came bottom of the overall table with a woeful 20% accuracy rate, making them about as accurate as Barack Obama’s 10-pin bowling arm!

However the second test was to find out how much readers care about accuracy. Well using Compete to analyze traffic to entertainment blogs shows Perez Hilton remains the standout leader, followed by DListed and then Nikki Finke. All three blogs appear to have had fairly consistent traffic levels over the past 12 months. One can deduce that while readers of entertainment blogs seek celebrity gossip, inaccurate celebrity gossip seems just as good as the real thing.

Similar conclusions can probably be drawn in the tech world were TechCrunch leads the pack with more than double its nearest rivals user numbers. However VentureBeat and Alley Insider appear to still be growing strongly in the past 6 months while TechCrunch appears to have plateaued. Perhaps in the long run in tech credibility rather than confident speculation will win out in the end?

For politics it is harder to track each pundits ups and downs however a clear loser over the past 4 months was Chris Matthews who was pulled from MSNBC’s election coverage. However, there the reason was due to MSNBC’s concern about its perceived liberal bias as opposed to Matthew’s patchy record as a pundit.

This marks the end of Pundit Watch’s four month experiment. After this point we will no longer be recording new predictions however we will retain the leaderboard to see how the remaining predictions play out. Additionally, we have just launched partner accounts (with Reuters as our launch partner) so we will be inviting the nine pundits to join us there.

Image by samuraispy via Flickr

Silicon Alley Insider is reporting that the FCC has now approved the HTC Dream, the first phone to run Google’s Gphone Android operating system. They are expecting the Dream to go on sale in the next quarter specifically before November 10th.

Venture Beat is also reporting on the launch of the HTC Dream and pulling from multiple sources they are predicting that it will go on sale between Oct 15 and Nov 30. After years of hype the promise of the mobile web may actually now be materialising (well, maybe).

Will the Google phone hit the stores this year?

siliconalleyinsider_pw predicted Yes   on 20th Aug 08

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The News Prediction Game

Will the Google phone hit the stores this year?

venturebeat_pw predicted Yes   on 20th Aug 08

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The News Prediction Game

Silicon Alley Insider is reporting while Apple hit their quarterly earning forecasts they gave surprisingly weak earning forecasts. SAI are speculating that this could be because they are planning on slashing prices in order to gain market share. SAI speculate:

So we can’t think of a better time for Apple to go on a market-share land grab. Cut the Mac mini to $400 as a toy for home-theater enthusiasts. Come out with a new, all-purpose “Mac” workstation for $600. And/or knock a few hundred off the MacBook and iMac, and keep the MacBook Pro and Mac Pro as high-end workhorses. Sell more computers to companies, and in turn, get their employees to buy Macs, iPhones, and Apple TVs at home.

Will Apple Announce Price Cuts Of $200 Or More On The iMac And MacBook Before Christmas?

siliconalleyinsider_pw predicted Yes on 25th Jul 08

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The News Prediction Game

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Silicon Alley Insider is reporting that Facebook won’t launch a payments system at F8. They report insiders as saying:

While Facebook is hard at work on a payments system for application developers, it’s simply not ready to launch yet.

Will Facebook Announce A Facebook Payments Platform At F8?

siliconalleyinsider_pw predicted No on 17th Jul 08

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The News Prediction Game

VentureBeat says:

The Gphone continues to be a figment of our imagination — Despite rumors to the contrary over the weekend, Google still has no plans to makes its own cell phone.

Silicon Alley Insider says:

So, we think that settles it — the Google guys were talking about the fact that they’re not producing their own branded phone, and that there isn’t a “Google phone”. And something got mixed up in the translation.

Will the google phone hit the stores this year?

venturebeat_pw predicted No on 14th Jul 08

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The News Prediction Game

Will the google phone hit the stores this year?

siliconalleyinsider_pw predicted No on 14th Jul 08

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The News Prediction Game

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Silicon Alley Insider is reporting that Yahoo shareholders are now prepared to take $31.50 per share. Sources close to Carl Icahn say he will take anything North of $30 a share. With the stock trading at in the low 20’s and alternatives to the Microsoft deal looking non-existent this shouldn’t come as much of a surprise.

Silicon Alley Insider don’t think Yahoo will so much as smell $30 from Microsoft now.

Will Microsoft Make Another Offer For Yahoo At $30 Or More By End Of 2008?

siliconalleyinsider_pw predicted No   on 10th Jul 08

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The News Prediction Game

Silicon Alley Insider is reporting rumors that Jerry Yang is preparing to resign. That doubles them up on the prediction that he is no longer CEO by the end of 2008. The chance that is still there is currently trading at 16% so it doesn’t look so good for Jerry.

Will Jerry Yang Remain CEO Of Yahoo By End Of 2008?

siliconalleyinsider_pw predicted No   on 9th Jul 08

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The News Prediction Game

VentureBeat is reporting that they have learned that Microsoft has agreed to acquire semantic search engine Powerset. Silicon Alley Insider is re-reporting the rumor. However, TechCrunch is saying that their sources are saying the deal hasn’t yet been signed (no prediction).

Will Microsoft scoop this one up or will it fall through like the Xobni deal as soon as the Powerset see what life is like in Redmond?

Will Microsoft Acquire Powerset By End Of July?

venturebeat_pw predicted Yes on 27th Jun 08

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The News Prediction Game

Will Microsoft Acquire Powerset By End Of July?

siliconalleyinsider_pw predicted Yes on 27th Jun 08

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The News Prediction Game

Silicon Alley Insider is repeating its prediction that AOL is going to get acquired in the next few months, only this time they are specifying it is going to be Microsoft that scoops it up.

Will either Microsoft or Yahoo buy AOL by August?

siliconalleyinsider_pw predicted Yes on 16th Jun 08

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The News Prediction Game

Things have been going against Carl Icahn in his master plan to unseat Jerry Yang and sell Yahoo to Microsoft. After Yahoo announced that it has ended all discussions with Microsoft, their stock has tanked and Icahn is most probably sitting on losses. Silicon Alley Insider reckon his options are now limited and he is likely to sell his stock.

Update: Silicon Alley Insider are now predicting he won’t be quick to take his losses. So I guess that is a bet the other way then!

Will Carl Icahn Announce He Has Sold His Stake In Yahoo By End Of July?

siliconalleyinsider_pw predicted Yes on 13th Jun 08

what is this?

The News Prediction Game

Will Carl Icahn Announce He Has Sold His Stake In Yahoo By End Of July?

siliconalleyinsider_pw predicted No on 13th Jun 08

what is this?

The News Prediction Game