Over the past 4 months we’ve diligently tracked some of the nations most prominent pundits. Not everyone welcomed having the card marked but we continue to track them anyway. Our objective was to find out how accurate these pundits were and whether their accuracy (or lack of it) actually matter to readers.
The results to date show Nikki Finke in the lead as while she has only a 55% accuracy record she’s successfully predicted a number of rank outsiders giving her a healthy return. Celebrity blogger, Perez Hilton, isn’t far behind in third position overall but DListed trails badly with a 33% accuracy ratio.
In the world of politics David Brooks is top dog with an impressive 62.5% accuracy ratio but additionally a number of well picked outsiders. Pat Buchanan has achieved an impressive 80% success ratio however many of his punts were odds on favorites so he still only ranks in 6th position. Chris Mathews however is in the red with a 41.67% hit rate. Next time Chris offers up some sage advice keep in mind that you would do better trusting a coin toss!
In the tech world we have expertly written Venture Beat edging out former Wall Street analyst Henry Blodget’s Silicon Alley Insider. Venture Beat managed to hit an impressive 66.67% accuracy rate. The runt of the tech litter however was Mike Arrington’s TechCrunch with came bottom of the overall table with a woeful 20% accuracy rate, making them about as accurate as Barack Obama’s 10-pin bowling arm!
However the second test was to find out how much readers care about accuracy. Well using Compete to analyze traffic to entertainment blogs shows Perez Hilton remains the standout leader, followed by DListed and then Nikki Finke. All three blogs appear to have had fairly consistent traffic levels over the past 12 months. One can deduce that while readers of entertainment blogs seek celebrity gossip, inaccurate celebrity gossip seems just as good as the real thing.
Similar conclusions can probably be drawn in the tech world were TechCrunch leads the pack with more than double its nearest rivals user numbers. However VentureBeat and Alley Insider appear to still be growing strongly in the past 6 months while TechCrunch appears to have plateaued. Perhaps in the long run in tech credibility rather than confident speculation will win out in the end?
For politics it is harder to track each pundits ups and downs however a clear loser over the past 4 months was Chris Matthews who was pulled from MSNBC’s election coverage. However, there the reason was due to MSNBC’s concern about its perceived liberal bias as opposed to Matthew’s patchy record as a pundit.
This marks the end of Pundit Watch’s four month experiment. After this point we will no longer be recording new predictions however we will retain the leaderboard to see how the remaining predictions play out. Additionally, we have just launched partner accounts (with Reuters as our launch partner) so we will be inviting the nine pundits to join us there.
Silicon Alley Insider is reporting that the FCC has now approved the HTC Dream, the first phone to run Google’s Gphone Android operating system. They are expecting the Dream to go on sale in the next quarter specifically before November 10th.
Venture Beat is also reporting on the launch of the HTC Dream and pulling from multiple sources they are predicting that it will go on sale between Oct 15 and Nov 30. After years of hype the promise of the mobile web may actually now be materialising (well, maybe).
Nikki puts in some specific box office predictions for this weekend´s movies. First up is Topic of Thunder, which opened last night.
“We will play to a little older audience than Pineapple Express, so we should do better on Saturday and get to about the same box office,” one insider tells me. But one problem is that, unlike Judd Apatow movies, Tropic Thunder has underweighted wanna-see value among the gals.
Nikki puts in a very specific $42 million opening bet (over the 5 days).
Next up is Star Wars: Clone Wars: “My box office gurus are all over the map on LucasFilm/Warner Bros’ Star Wars: The Clone Wars toon for the geek in all of you (not me) with dominant tracking interest from males over 25, with predictions from a low of $15M to a high of low $20sM from 3,300+ venues. The higher numbers depend on how many 8 to 11 aged boys show up to see it.”
Nikki puts in a $15 to low 20s million range. If she´s right, she will end up winning big on this question!
Finally, Nikki predicts the end of the #1 run for Dark Knight. She´s a little late on this market, but we´ll wait until this weekend to see whether she´s right or not!
Our celebrity bloggers are in cahoots today on juicy news about Amy Winehouse and Peaches Geldof.
These two british celebrities have both brightened up the tabloids with their antics - after a period of relative recuperation following her hospital scare, Amy Winehouse has lashed out at the producers of Quantum of Solace who overlooked her in favour of Alicia Keys and Jack White. Winehouse has threatened to release her version of the song on the same day as the American duo.
Peaches Geldof has barely recovered from her alleged overdose to now elope to the States to marry boyfriend and musician Max Drummey. Both pundits are saying the marriage won’t last more than a month - which is about the attention span of the tabloids!
‘This weekend’s predictions start early with today’s opening of Sony’s Pineapple Express. I hate when that happens because it makes the Friday-Saturday-Sunday showdown far less exciting. (And box office analysts live for the drama…) This Judd Apatow-bannered stoner comedy starring Seth Rogen and James Franco should gross more than $10 million Wednesday/Thursday and probably mid to high $20sM for the weekend which would give the pic a 5-day total of mid-$30sM. Certainly, the tracking is showing a $35M-$37.5M range for the five days. But my box office gurus think the R-rated movie which is getting good buzz and great reviews could hit $40M.’
Tom Ridge is the former Governor of Pennsylvania and was the first director of Homeland Security. According to Chris Matthew’s he’s the guy McCain “really wants to pick.” Ridge unfortunately is someone full of potential problems, the cornerstone being he’s “pro-choice.” McCain is already under pressure from his Conservative base, and Ridge would certainly damage McCain, even irreparably.
The widening debate regarding drilling in the Outer Continental Shelf may have been cooling down, but Senator Obama’s recent comment regarding the possibility of compromise with McCain has brought it front and center once again. Pat Buchanan another Punditwatch pundit has already predicted we would drill but now David Brooks has thrown his hat in the ring, saying “we’re gonna drill.”
Ok, so Dlisted may in fact be jumping the gun in announcing a Batman 3, but given the success of Dark Knight it’s not a bad idea for movie companies.
Dlisted has leaked reports that in the next Batman movie, Angelina will star as Catwoman, Johnny Depp will be The Riddler, and Phillip Seymour Hoffman will play The Penguin. All great actors, but will this prove to be a great insight or just another empty rumour?
Ps - Widgets not working today, sorry, but dlisted has money on ‘All three of the above’ in this question.
Nikki Finke has put in her predictions for this week’s box office weekend: ‘my box office gurus mostly agree that Mummy 3 should make at least mid to high $40sM. And it wouldn’t shock them if the number is $50+M.’
Given these numbers, Finke goes on to say that The Mummy should end the weekend in Number 1 position.
With Step Brother, Finke calls Costner box office poison, and predicts as much as $10 million, and as little as $4 million for the opening of this ’soon to be bomb’.
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